Recruiting from the EU in the event of No Deal

I am studiously avoiding the politics of this, but I think the essence of if will pivot round one of three outcomes - one, the deal proposed by the PM is agreed by the House, and therefore the transition arrangements are in play. This is exceptionally unlikely. Second, there is no deal, at which point we realise that there is currently no agreed Plan B. Regardless of the regulations surrounding it, and how quickly a solution, points or skills based can be cobbled together, I think that the likelihood of an EU national choosing to come to the UK range from slim to none, certainly in the short term and until there is clarity one way or the other. Current arrangements cannot continue, as we have no clarity on whether free movement of British citizens will continue, so its not status quo, and at the moment not even quid pro quo. The third option, which looks more likely, is that all bets are off, and not only don't we know the decision that may be taken, at the moment it looks likely that the House will drive the agenda rather than the PM or the Government, in a welcome outbreak of democracy which looks more likely than not to lead to a General Election and - as a minimum - an extension.

From my own experience the impact of the uncertainty is clear and prescient now, and I know for a fact many EU nationals are leaving the UK, leaving behind attractive jobs - but with no-one to fill them.

I hope I have avoided a partisan view point...

We can only wait to see how events play out. Will May resign if she is heavily defeated? Would this mean a Brexiteer PM put in place or a General Election? Will the Grieve-led rebels 'take back control' and cancel the whole thing?

One can only assume that some clever people in the Civil Service are war-gaming every possible outcome. May is at pains to say that it's 'her deal, no deal or no Brexit' but I would hope that a responsible government is prepared for every eventuality.

We can only wait to see how events play out. Will May resign if she is heavily defeated? Would this mean a Brexiteer PM put in place or a General Election? Will the Grieve-led rebels 'take back control' and cancel the whole thing?

One can only assume that some clever people in the Civil Service are war-gaming every possible outcome. May is at pains to say that it's 'her deal, no deal or no Brexit' but I would hope that a responsible government is prepared for every eventuality.

Daniel

I hate to break it to you, but after 7 years in Whitehall where I was lucky to learn that neither Yes Minister or The Thick of It are in any way satirical, I can assure you that they are not. We are 2.5 years past making the decision to leave, and creating the requirement to formulate trade agreements, immigration policy et. with every other trading block and country in the world - and unless its happened this morning, we have none, and two months to do it in. There is no trade or freedom of movement backstop if there is no deal - movement of people and goods stops immediately.

The difficulty (in reality) is that when PM May says " it's 'her deal, no deal or no Brexit'" she may (with minor concessions, amendments or moderate changes) be actually right. Its hard to see why the EU will give much more ground (after two years of negotiating and without clarity of what we actually want. Its hard to see indeed what "concessions" would significantly change opinion in the HoC.

Therefore it probably is down to one of those three options, either in March or after another delay.

And I am not sure that a general election (at least if you believe the current opinion polls) would result in a significantly different result on Brexit - unless you believe that the other 27 have a much better deal up their sleeves which I don't.

Therefore I think most employers should be basing their planning on one of PM Mays three options.  So we can at least work on some planning based on those options to allow us at least some time to think about what we will do.

The other semi-HR link is about negotiating (a long lost skill in many HR folk) and how to recognise the power balance and how to take your various stakeholders on the journey to the possible rather than the aspiration.

Any why would, or even should the EU concede? Britain's current position is akin to cancelling your golf club membership fees, then begging to keep playing till a point in the future which we cannot predict, then getting annoyed that that's not acceptable, then burning down the club house..

I read a report from an anonymous civil servant that No Deal planning is actually well-advanced and it is part of the Government's scare tactics to pretend that it isn't:

www.politicshome.com/.../anonymous-civil-servant-blasts-claims-uk-not-prepared-no

The Port of Calais has been preparing for No Deal for a year to keep the lorries rolling:

www.express.co.uk/.../Brexit-news-no-deal-Theresa-May-port-delays-BBC-Today-Calais-Dover-EU

It would be a gross dereliction of duty for the government to call a referendum, vote to trigger Article 50 and then do no planning. Little deals are being done on medicine, flights, driving licenses etc. I suspect that it will be the 'little people' on the ground who will make Brexit work.

As far as I can see, the EU has conceded absolutely nothing in these 'negotiations' and we have conceded everything. The EU has a £90 billion surplus in goods with us. They will be hit harder by tariffs than we would. Our economy is based around services. If there is 'friction' at the borders and e.g. lorry-loads of Spanish tomatoes are delayed at Calais, who is going to suffer the most? The EU needs our trade, our money, our fishing waters, our defence and security co-operation and access to our jobs market. Sadly, we have a government which doesn't want to leave and hence doesn't want to use these points to our advantage.

Daniel

What right does someone have to negotiate an exit? its our choice and decision, so why would anyone concede? Are you clear on what we have asked for and not got?

I fear that we are straying off topic, but sticking to the original thread, we employ significantly more Europeans than Europeans employ British people. We have made precisely no concessions, just asked for things. The fact remains that if any country can't send its people or goods to us economically, they'll send them somewhere else - probably to one of the 27 countries that they have free movement of goods and people to. To imagine that we are propping up other economies is fallacy.

Unemployment rate for European immigrants is 1/4 of the UK indigenous population. Our economy is, as has been the case for 60 years, propped up by unskilled foreign labour. Even the UK government concedes that we have huge shortages in both skilled and unskilled roles, with a ready market available 22 miles away, and we are cutting of the supply. As I stated before, of course we may have a system to allow entry for workers, but our attractiveness - economically and emotionally - will be permanently diminished. The jobs drain has already begun and will only get worse.

An awful lot of political points there Daniel for someone who wanted to avoid politics :-) :-)

I think I'll just shut up now...

I am a little wary of this thread. It was started by Daniel who was asking what appeared to be a genuine question about recruitment. It then becomes apparent that he supports Brexit quite strongly (in which case i am unsure why he is asking the question as surely no-one with any sense vote for something without knowing what the implications were). Then if anyone suggests that Brexit may not be a good idea he then criticizes people for making political points, before quoting from the Express as if it is a reliable source of information!

I think this thread should be deleted really as it is clear now that Daniel's original question wasn't genuine

I think if you read the first page of this thread all contributors pretty much avoid the politics of the actual Brexit vote. I think Daniel's opening question was genuine, so I'm not going to delete the thread. People can choose whether or not to add to the debate... but I'd prefer we didn't stray too far from the original question. Maybe that horse has bolted ;)