First, I predict that the current excitement about the impact and potential of AI is grossly exaggerated and it will have little to no impact upon HR in the next 5 years. There will be several legal cases that establish that employers are still liable if they discriminate against candidates when the discrimination was conducted by an algorithm. AI companies will continue to be sued for stealing training data for their LLMs, and investors, seeing a failure to deliver the predicted returns on investment, will abandon them. The tech-bros responsible will pivot to something equally stupid and face no meaningful consequences.
Second, I predict that the conflict between managers wanting RTO and employees wanting WFH is going to intensify with the stiffening of the Flexible Working Regulations and introduction of a default right to work a 4-day week (albeit as a compressed week). Engagement, satisfaction, productivity and retention in businesses that enforce RTO and a 5-day model will plummet. Managers will blame GenZ.
Third, and consequent to the above, unions will continue to grow in membership and importance, with many more smaller, private companies facing demands for recognition of unions and collective bargaining.
Great question Dav! I'm curious to know why you're asking (?). To upskill your team?
Robey brings up some great points around AI; allow me to present a different perspective. 5 years is a long time in AI. Five years ago, the term Responsible AI didn't exist (everyone was still referring to AI Ethics and the most we had were Principles), nobody had heard of a LLM and we were still more focussed on data legislation than specific AI legislation.
I think there will be new AI tools which will attract a lot of talk and some adoption (similar to ChatGPT) and the tools we are conducting POC's with today will become more commonplace. AI tools in HR will be more prevalent and potentially insidious. It will be embedded in all HR tech to some degree, with or without employees knowing! The ways HR will use AI will be predominanly in the businesses interest to maintain competitveness, but we will start to see issues arise in the areas of employee trust and engagement.
HR's focus may [should] widen beyond AI used by HR, and instead focus on how the AI in the workplace is affecting employees. The term algorithmic management will be commonly understood and HR will be advising business on org structure, team structure and job design for AI + Humans.
Legislation will continue to evolve, and the next 5 years will be spent trying to keep up. MNC's will have the greatest challenge, with the lack of legislative alignment globally. A few key cases will push the conversation forward, and though they will be discussed by HR, all but a few will impact HR directly.
Some really good points already! My view on AI is it will cause a bit of a challenge more so with employees and senior managers - I see it being the new tool for people to try and tell us how to do our job! I imagine this putting some HR jobs at risk and then we will see an increase in businesses getting things wrong. Hopefully, (if this is the case) we will see a complete 180 and then a demand for more HR professionals once people establish it is absolutely NOT a black and white AI job that can be done by anyone.
Flexibility will be a massive one, I totally agree with Robey about this. There will be so much demand and push back. This will 100% contribute to the unions - current government will push for more work-life balance which will be challenging for smaller businesses that rely a bit more on teams coming together when needed.
My other predictions are:
- Increase in discrimination legislation, practices and changes to how far businesses go with reasonable adjustments.
- Increase in H&S practices and a focus on this when WFH. I think we will have to start providing more equipment and training, more onus will be on businesses.
- My wild card for this subject is that I suspect over the next few years businesses might have to provide staff with a type of medical insurance to support the NHS to ease some financial pressures, including strengthening mental health care.
